LA MICROFINANCE ET LA REDUCTION DE LA PAUVRETE A KISANGANI: UNE ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE BASEE SUR LE MODELE LOGIT ET PSM

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of access to microfinance on the improvement of household welfare in the city of Kisangani. More specifically, it seeks, on the one hand, to identify the socioeconomic characteristics that influence households’ access to microcredit and, on the other hand, to assess the effect of microcredit on selected dimensions of economic welfare, namely income, consumption expenditures, and children's schooling.

To achieve these objectives, the study relies on a quantitative approach based on two complementary econometric methods. First, a logistic regression model (Logit) was used to identify the determinants of access to microcredit. This method made it possible to estimate the probability of a household obtaining microcredit according to several socioeconomic characteristics, including age, gender, level of education, household size, marital status, employment status, ownership of property titles, income, and economic sector of activity. Second, the Propensity Score Matching

(PSM) method was employed to evaluate the impact of microcredit on poverty reduction. This approach consisted of  matching each microcredit beneficiary with one or more non-beneficiaries who shared similar characteristics. The matching procedure helped reduce selection bias arising from the non-random allocation of credit. After matching, the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) was estimated by comparing the outcomes observed between matched groups.

The results of the Logit model reveal that the level of education, income, employment status, ownership of property titles, and engagement in tertiary sector activities positively and significantly influence the probability of accessing microcredit. In contrast, involvement in the primary sector is negatively associated with access to credit, reflecting the difficulties faced by households engaged in agricultural and extractive activities in obtaining financial support. The results of the Propensity Score Matching analysis indicate a generally positive but moderate effect of microcredit on household welfare. Beneficiaries recorded an average monthly income that was USD 52.40 higher than that of non-beneficiaries. Microcredit also contributed to an increase in food expenditures, with an average effect estimated at USD 15, and led to a slight improvement in children's school enrollment. However, its impact on non-food expenditures remained weak and statistically insignificant.

These findings suggest that microfinance contributes to improving the living conditions of beneficiary households, particularly through higher income and increased food consumption. Nevertheless, its effectiveness in achieving sustainable poverty reduction remains limited due to several constraints, including the low profitability of financed activities, insufficient loan amounts, and the persistent economic challenges faced by households. Microfinance therefore appears to be a useful tool, but not a sufficient solution on its own to eradicate poverty.