DÉMOCRATIE AUX OUBLIETTES EN RÉPUBLIQUE DÉMOCRATIQUE DU CONGO: ÉTUDE MENÉE DANS LA PROVINCE DU MANIEMA ENTRE 2003 ET 2023

Abstract

This study examines the mechanisms of democratic regression in the province of Maniema, Democratic Republic of the Congo, over a period spanning four electoral cycles (2003–2023). Drawing on the five arenas of consolidation defined by Linz and Stepan (1996), the research demonstrates that procedural regularity in elections conceals a profound structural failure. The results reveal acute electoral monolithism, with an average gap of 72.3 points between the winner and the runner-up, thereby invalidating Przeworski’s (1991) principle of institutional uncertainty. This political lockdown is strongly correlated (r = 0.91) with the capture of the state apparatus by mineral rents, which transforms the rule of law into a "rhizome-state" (Bayart, 2006). The erosion of citizen trust—evidenced by the decline in voter turnout from 65.36% in 2006 to 43.2% in 2023, and the perception of voting as useless among 68% of households (Institut National de la Statistique/RDC, 2025)—testifies to a shift toward a "forgotten democracy." Finally, semiotic discontinuity (Nguya Katembwe, 2026) hinders the Weberian routinization of institutions (Weber, 1971), confining the province to a "black zone" of systemic capture.